Note - the following are points I used for a recent talk.
1. THE
BIG PICTURE
·
The purpose of this presentation is to prepare
those who are interested to study General Elections in general and GE15 in
particular. Whither GE15?
·
I started following general elections early in
life – earliest recollection was the 5th general election of 1978
when I was 14 years old. Since then while others waited for the World Cup,
Olympics, Formula One Races or Miss Universe Contests, I was the boring guy who
eagerly waited for general elections.
·
I noticed over the years that there are
recurring patterns – like the rather known pendulum swings of opposition
supporters – mainly non-Malay voters (e.g., the recent Melaka and Johore state
elections). And when the Malays are unsure about UMNO they tend to vote PAS
(the trend of the last 10 to 15 years)
·
But most importantly, I found that at the end
of the day, most, if not all, voter choices are emotional. Even those who speak
with rational self-assurance – these are likely those who use logic to justify
their emotions.
·
We must note that facts are dry and rather
boring while emotions are juicier. It is crucial to understand that emotions do
not really respond to reasons 😊.
·
Emotions that affect voter decisions the most
are fear, insecurity, anger, joy, hope and love. (e.g. Sabah and Bossku
supporters, Tun in Langkawi)
·
As such, when studying elections, we often hear
the saying – “one week is a long time in politics”. What happens the last 24 months,
and, the last 24 hours before the election day, can impact election results. This
is what I call the cumulative-snowballing emotions versus the final burst -
just before the election day. (e.g., 1990 and 2018.)
·
As emotions are non-rational, they can be
easily DISPLACED, CONCEALED AND SHIFTED – EVEN FROM ONESELF!
·
This is a very central understanding – and we
need to be self-aware. You cannot read the voters well when you are emotionally
partisan to any side. Hope is a powerful emotion that can distort reality.
(e.g. Rafizi/PKR on PAS 2017, PMO’s Research Team 2018).
·
As such, I will always take researched backed
by any political parties with a kilogram of salt.
2. HOW I
READ THE ELECTORATE/MARKET – 2 KEY AREAS
·
STUDY THE GROUND
i. Besides
studying the work of research houses, analysts and smart people, nothing beats
listening to the market - the voters.
ii. The
best method is to hang around them at the ground level – across the nation (not
just the Bangsar crowd 😊) and eavesdrop – basically shut up and
listen. (e.g. Sedim, Kulim, Kedah 2018)
iii. Ask
questions and shut up – listen. (e.g., Government servants 2018)
iv. Listen
to both the explicit and implicit messages. Listen to their emotions and feelings,
fear, insecurities, anger, joy, hope and love. Even when someone looks like he
or she is sharing facts and showing how smart he or she is, listen to his or
her audience – both their verbal and non-verbal expressions.
v. When
one person speaks, you can listen and learn about so many others. So, when you
attend talks, sermons, news, a chit- chat session etc don’t only watch the
speakers, look at the audience.
vi. Create
and build a feedback network all over the country across generations, racial
groups and political inclinations. (e.g. 2008 elections and Penang)
·
STUDY THE LEADERSHIP AND ORGANIZATIONAL ABILITY
i. A
groundswell of emotions cannot win elections without CLARITY OF LEADERSHIP that
is able to remove uncertainties and the ORGANIZATIONAL ABILITY to deliver results.
ii. During
election day pull strategy no longer is viable, only push strategy is
available. It’s the election machinery. (e.g., Ketua10 by UMNO-BN)
iii. Which
party/coalition has clear leadership – ONE CLEAR LEADER who can apply GROUP-TO-GROUP
(G2G) leadership. The ability to pull together the various groupings towards a
common goal, against a common enemy.
iv. That ONE
CLEAR LEADER’S G2G skills must not be confined to his or her personality but also
G2G in ORGANIZATION, BRANDING, COMMUNICATION, PROCESSES, (in the long run,
CULTURE) etc. (e.g., 2018 the use of one logo (PKR) by PH)
3. WHERE ARE
WE TODAY? What am I hearing from the ground thus far?
·
Uncertainties – No clarity of ONE SINGLE LEADER
from both/all sides who can be perceived as being able to remove uncertainties.
There is also a vacuum for a G2G coalition that can deliver a clear majority.
·
Confused voters (a very large number)– Who is
with who? Who is in the team, who is the enemy? In Malay = a comment made was “cacamarba”
– (e.g. A group of mixed young Malay executives recently). “aku tak paham lah
nak undi siapa”.
·
Dysfunctional – “I am not going to vote,
period”, “I am going for a holiday ha!ha!”, “I am not going to take the trouble
to drive back to my hometown lah”, “All also cannot pakai lah!”, “Nothing will
change la”
·
Waiting game – “Let’s wait and see”, “I do no
lah …”, “
·
Fickle/Indecisive – specifically for or not for
BN – based on the court cases, current policies.
·
Die Hard – There are also substantial die-hard
voters from both/all sides – the vote banks.
4. WHEN
IS THE ELECTION? WHY?
·
As you have noticed we launched our 1st
MPPI GE 15 series today September 7th, 2022 with a minimum of 5 more Webinars to go – one for each
month. That will take us until February 2023 at the least.
·
Unless he is forced to and has completely no
choice, I have maintained since early this year that PM Ismail Sabri will need
to push GE15 as late as possible – he has till September 14th 2023.
He needs more time. Why?
·
If I were PM Ismail Sabri, it is not enough
that I am just a “Poster Boy” for UMNO and Barisan Nasional. I must be the
“ANCHOR MAN”. He is not selling products over a weekend; he is trying to win a
national election. He must be the ANCHOR MAN, not a Poster Boy. An ANCHOR MAN
is not just a lame person you front others with puppet masters behind him. An
ANCHOR MAN is the one calling the shots, centre of authority, decisions and
actions.
·
He needs to establish that he is the ONE CLEAR
LEADER that the country can rely on to remove uncertainties and make things happen.
·
He will need to ensure he has the support of at
least 80% if not 100% of UMNO divisional heads. Meaning, UMNO is behind him
directly not via the UMNO President or any other individuals. To me, delaying
the UMNO elections till after the GE is one of UMNO’s biggest mistakes.
·
He needs a real united UMNO to ensure victory.
·
He needs to work on G2G unity with BN, PN, MN
and the Borneo States coalitions.
·
He needs to start paying more attention to
non-Malays and non-Bumiputeras – the Chinese and Indians especially if he wants
to win with a comfortable majority.
·
He needs to consider the states not under BN
but yet part of his G2G allies’ willingness to dissolve their state legislatures
too.
·
The economy – the rakyat is happier, have more money
for basic needs and enough to spare for leisure – the feel-good affect.
·
MOST IMPORTANTLY - He must be sure that he can
win. That he can wrest at least 90 to 100 seats within the Peninsular after
listening to reliable grassroots organizations like KEMAS, RT and other reliable
sources like the PDRM, ATM, etc. Obviously, the feedback as of today and for the
last many months, is not rosy. It is "crazy" for them to go to the ballot today.
5. WHAT I
FORESEE AND HOPE FOR GE15?
·
If the current situation persists without ONE
CLEAR LEADER WHO CAN G2G a viable coalition from any sides of the political
divide or GE15 is forced sooner, we will likely face a hung parliament.
·
My hope then is that the anti-party hopping law
is readied in the parliament seating soon. Logically, the anti-hopping law will
have a grace period to cater for the formation of a government – and kicks in
as soon as the new parliament is in session.
·
I personally hope that somehow, we go back to
our founding father’s formula of forming a formidable coalition. Since 2008
Langkah September, I have strong convictions that we are not ready to have a
government without a super majority. The CRAB CULTURE among our politicians is
thick. Each trying to pull the other down when the other side does not have a
comfortable majority. We need a wide-based coalition that caters for the needs
of all Malaysian via representation in the government.
i. In
1957 – we came together and formed the Alliance with the goal of MERDEKA
ii. In
1963 – we came together and formed Malaysia
iii. In 1973
– we came together and formed Barisan Nasional to focus on development – not
just our economy, but our people.
iv. In
2023 – 50 years later, is it not time for us to step back, come together,
reflect, reset, relaunch the nation? The last few years of “cacamerba” and
“crab culture” warrant a regrouping.
·
However, to ensure we do not deviate from the
“straight path” as we did the last 50 years, we must fiercely ensure that the
Judiciary, MACC, PDRM,EC, and other government bodies that ensure check and
balances are independent.
Thank you.
Peace, anas
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