Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Tri-Election and Pendulum Swing

By now a good number of voters would have voted in Bukit Gantang, Bukit Selambau and Batang Air by-elections.

Last night while chit-chatting at Mont Kiara with some friends, one of friends suggested that Nizar will win at Bukit Gantang. My response was a little more checked.

In my opinion, this election will depend much on the Chinese voting behaviour commonly known as ‘The Pendulum Swing’. Historically, the Chinese voters will swing their vote between BN and the opposition from one General Election to the other. It has been a little more than one year since March 8th. Would there be a swing to BN yet?

Accordingly, the Malay votes would likely bias toward BN this time around. So even if 50% of the Chinese sway back to BN, Barisan will win comfortably. If the Chinese voters remain pro Opposition, either side will win with a thin majority, and we will see counting and recounting of the ballot papers and PR crying foul play if they lose, etc. We will have to go through a merry go round., sigh...

(It was a tactical mistake on PR’s side in choosing Nizar to run for Bukit Gantang. They should have listened to Nik Aziz earlier. If he wins, PR is back to square one – arguing for legitimacy which is already taking place through the courts. If he loses, he loses BIG)

I am hoping that whichever side wins, it would be with a clear margin, so we are spared the irritation of having to face another childlike display.

As for the other two other seats, especially Batang Air, quite likely BN will win. If PR could upset BN in Sarawak; the credit is to Anwar Ibrahim, but quite unlikely lah...

My biggest hope is that the winner whether BN or PR does not try to suggest that this is a referendum of the entire nation. I have enough of these arguments. They may however factor their winning to a better momentum in winning the next General Elections.

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