I find it interesting that Tengku Zafrul has openly stated that he
intends to end Rafizi Ramli’s political career in P100 Pandan.
He may in fact be correct that Rafizi could lose the seat. However, he
too may not be the winner.
Imagine a three-cornered fight:
- Pakatan Harapan fields its own
official candidate, Tengku Zafrul.
- Rafizi and his new team contest
separately.
- Perikatan Nasional enters with a
strong PAS/PN-backed candidate.
Pandan is a mixed urban seat with Malay voters estimated to be around 45%
to 50%. Recent election trends suggest that PN has already made major inroads
among Malay voters, even in urban constituencies.
If PN can consolidate and garner up to 80% of the Malay votes, while the
non-Malay and non-PN-oriented votes split between Pakatan Harapan and Rafizi’s
team, then mathematically, the likely winner may actually be Perikatan
Nasional.
In other words, the biggest threat to Pakatan Harapan in Pandan may not
be Rafizi alone. The bigger danger may be the fragmentation of the non-PN vote.
And, PN’s growing strengths and attraction.
Politics is not only about popularity. It is also about mathematics,
voter psychology, turnout, and unity.
Peace, Anas Zubedy
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