HARI MERDEKA 2026 - VISION 2057 - WHY START ON 31/08/26

 

VISION 2057 – Why Start on 31st August 2026

Tomorrow is Hari Merdeka 2026.

As we celebrate 69 years of independence, perhaps we should ask ourselves not only how far we have come, but how far ahead we are prepared to look.

Accordingly, during US President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972, Zhou Enlai was asked what he thought about the impact of the French Revolution, which had occurred nearly two centuries earlier. He famously replied, “It is still too early to tell.”

Perhaps that should not surprise us. After all, there is an old Chinese saying: “It takes ten years to grow a tree, but a hundred years to cultivate people.”

Similarly, in the Islamic tradition there is a popular saying familiar to generations of Muslims: “Work for your worldly life as though you will live forever, and work for your Hereafter as though you will die tomorrow.”

It reminds us to hold two horizons at once: to recognise the urgency of today, while building and planning for a future well beyond ourselves.

I find these two traditions, Chinese and Islamic, remarkably in tune with the thinking of Peter Drucker. In The Dimensions of Management, Drucker stressed that management must always live in both the present and the future.

We must perform today, otherwise there may be no tomorrow. But we must also build for tomorrow, otherwise what we achieve today cannot last.

In other words, we must manage today while simultaneously managing tomorrow.

Malaysia at 100

This is why, on this Merdeka, I would like to bring up again something I believe deserves our collective attention:

Vision 2057, Malaysia at 100.

On 31st August 2057, our nation will celebrate its 100th year of independence.

What kind of Malaysia do we want to see on that day?

A more peaceful Malaysia? A more united and integrated Malaysia? A prosperous and advanced Malaysia? A fairer and more just Malaysia? A nation with strong and trusted institutions? A nation where our children believe they can build their lives and their future?

What, in other words, would a truly great Malaysia look like at 100?

But perhaps there is an even more fundamental question we need to ask:

What kind of Malaysian should we be in 2057?

Because ultimately, a great Malaysia can only be built by great Malaysians.

We can build better institutions, better infrastructure, better schools and universities, better companies and a stronger economy. All these are important.

But at the centre of all of them is a person, a citizen, someone we call a Malaysian.

Who should that Malaysian be?

What should an excellent Malaysian look like? How should we behave? How should we treat one another? What values should we carry? What should our relationship be with people of different races, religions, cultures and backgrounds?

How should we balance our rights with our responsibilities? How should we behave when nobody is watching? How should we contribute to our families, organisations, communities and country?

These questions, I believe, must sit at the heart of Vision 2057.

One year to talk

I suggest that we approach Vision 2057 in two time dimensions.

The first is very near: one year.

From 31st August 2026 to 31st August 2027, let us come together as Malaysians and seriously discuss where we want our country, and ourselves as its citizens, to be.

But before discussing 2057, we must have the honesty to understand 2026.

Where are we today?

What have we done right? What are we proud of and should preserve? What have we done wrong? What needs correcting? What should we strengthen and enhance?

What practices, attitudes and ways of thinking have outlived their usefulness and should be abandoned? And what new things must we learn?

This requires honesty.

Loving Malaysia does not mean pretending everything is fine. Neither does loving Malaysia mean finding fault with everything. We must be mature enough to recognise both.

And we should apply the same honesty to ourselves.

What is good about us as Malaysians today? What is not?

What qualities should we preserve? What behaviours must we change? What artificial boundaries have we created between ourselves that we need to dismantle? What new attitudes and capabilities will Malaysians need to thrive in the next thirty years?

Only then should we ask:

Where do we want to be?

By 31st August 2027, perhaps we can arrive at a clearer picture not only of the Malaysia we want in 2057, but also the Malaysian we need to become to create it.

We will not agree on everything. We should not expect to.

But surely there are important aspirations upon which most Malaysians can agree.

For this conversation, we need to try to rise above partisan politics, race, religion, ethnicity, geography, social position and personal interests.

The bigger question must always be:

What is good for Malaysia and for the generations that come after us?

And this conversation belongs to everyone.

Government and opposition. Businesses and workers. Schools and universities. Religious organisations. NGOs and NPOs. Professional bodies. Community groups. Parents and families. Young Malaysians. Malaysians in Sabah and Sarawak and throughout the Peninsula. Malaysians living overseas.

Let the conversations happen everywhere.

Then begins the 30-year work

Once we are clearer about where we are and where we want to go, the second time dimension begins:

31st August 2027 to 31st August 2057. Thirty years.

Then comes the harder question:

What must we do to get there?

For government, this may mean translating our long-term aspirations into perhaps six five-year plans, and then further into annual budgets, programmes and measurable actions.

But Vision 2057 cannot be only a government plan.

Every institution and organisation has a role. So does every family.

And so does every individual Malaysian.

Consider a young parent with a child below five years old today. In 2057, that child will be in their thirties, perhaps a parent, a professional, an entrepreneur or a leader themselves.

What kind of Malaysian do we want that child to become?

If we want that person to be honest, responsible, hardworking, competent, caring, disciplined, united with fellow Malaysians and able to work comfortably across race and religion, we cannot begin teaching these things in 2056.

We begin today.

And perhaps we adults need to look at ourselves first.

Children learn not only from what we teach them, but from what they see us practise.

So what must we relearn? What must we correct? What must we stop passing from one generation to another?

At the end of the day, Malaysia is not merely its government, its buildings, its economy or its institutions.

Malaysia is Malaysians.

If we want an excellent Malaysia in 2057, our most important long-term project must therefore be the cultivation of excellent Malaysians.

Perhaps that brings us back to the old Chinese wisdom with which we began:

It takes ten years to grow a tree, but a hundred years to cultivate people.

Tomorrow, Malaysia turns 69.

We have 31 years before Malaysia turns 100.

Let us use the first year to come together, ask questions, listen, disagree constructively and decide both what kind of Malaysia we want and what kind of Malaysians we need to become.

Then let us give ourselves thirty years to work towards it.

One year to decide who and where we want to be.

Thirty years to build the Malaysians, and the Malaysia, we want at 100.

And we begin tomorrow, 31st August 2026.

Peace,

anas zubedy

Kuala Lumpur

 

LAPAN BULATAN SEORANG PEMIMPIN-PENGURUS - Sinar Harian Hari Ini

LAPAN BULATAN SEORANG PEMIMPIN-PENGURUS

Yang dihormati Kapten Industri dan Perkhidmatan Awam,

Tugas seorang Pemimpin-Pengurus ringkas untuk dinyatakan, tetapi mencabar untuk dilaksanakan: menggerakkan Tugasan, Pasukan, dan Individu ke arah Matlamat Korporat. Untuk mencapai hasrat ini, seorang Pemimpin-Pengurus mesti memimpin dan mengurus empat bidang kritikal: diri sendiri, orang lain, pelaksanaan proses serta sistem, dan juga perubahan.

Daripada keempat-empat bidang ini, memimpin dan mengurus diri sendiri kerap menerima perhatian paling sedikit. Kebanyakan program kepimpinan memberi fokus kepada pengurusan orang lain. Walaupun ia penting, kepimpinan diri kekal sebagai asas utama. Seseorang yang tidak mampu mengurus dirinya sendiri akhirnya akan bergelut untuk memimpin orang lain. Pepatah ada menyebut, ikan membusuk bermula daripada kepalanya; apabila seorang pemimpin gagal mengurus diri, kesannya akan dirasai oleh semua.

Bidang kedua, iaitu memimpin orang lain, merupakan perkara yang paling biasa bagi kita. Bidang ketiga, iaitu pelaksanaan, adalah sama penting kerana pemimpin diamanahkan untuk memastikan tugasan menjadi serta menterjemahkan matlamat menjadi tindakan. Akhir sekali, pemimpin mesti berupaya mengurus perubahan. Mereka perlu berbuat demikian sambil menguruskan diri, orang lain, dan pelaksanaan secara serentak, kerana perubahan bukanlah peristiwa sesekali sahaja, melainkan persekitaran sebenar di mana dunia kepimpinan itu wujud.

Lapan Bulatan (Circles) Pemimpin-Pengurus menyediakan satu kerangka kerja praktikal bagi membantu para pemimpin memenuhi tanggungjawab ini dengan lebih berkesan:

Bulatan 1: Penetapan Matlamat dan Jangkaan

Tugas pertama mana-mana Pemimpin-Pengurus adalah menghapuskan ketidakpastian. Warga kerja berprestasi lebih baik apabila tahu apa yang dijangkakan daripada mereka. Penetapan matlamat yang berkesan bermula dengan dua perkara: jelas tentang matlamat yang dikehendaki dan mengajukan soalan yang betul terhadap matlamat tersebut. Matlamat memberi arah tuju, manakala soalan memastikan kejelasan. Kedua-duanya sangat diperlukan.

Kejelasan juga mesti diiringi dengan erti makna matlamat. Tanpa kedua-dua elemen ini, warga kerja hanya melihat tugas sebagai rutin untuk diselesaikan, bukannya hasil yang perlu dicapai. Tiga amalan berikut dapat memperkukuh penetapan matlamat:

·        Mewujudkan kontrak sosial yang jelas supaya semua pihak memahami tingkah laku yang dijangkakan antara atasan, rakan sejawat, staf seliaan, dan pemegang taruh.

·        Mewujudkan bahasa prestasi bersama agar warga kerja memahami apa yang dikategorikan sebagai cemerlang, baik, boleh diterima, atau tidak boleh diterima.

·        Memastikan setiap orang mengetahui garis dasar (baseline): di mana mereka berada hari ini, di mana mereka perlu berada, bila sasaran tersebut perlu dicapai, dan strategi yang telah dipersetujui untuk menuju ke sana.

Bulatan 2: Perancangan dan Penyelesaian Masalah

Cara terbaik memotivasikan warga kerja adalah dengan membantu mereka mencapai kejayaan. Tiada apa yang lebih memotivasikan berbanding perkembangan, pembangunan diri, dan kejayaan.

Gabungan Bulatan 1 dan Bulatan 2 membentuk teras kepimpinan dan pengurusan. Pertama, pemimpin menetapkan matlamat yang jelas. Kemudian, mereka membantu warga kerja mencapai matlamat tersebut. Walau bagaimanapun, tidak semua orang bermula dengan tahap kesediaan yang sama. Ada yang memerlukan penambahan pengetahuan, ada yang memerlukan bimbingan, dan ada pula yang memerlukan pemantauan rapat. Pemimpin-Pengurus yang berkesan menyedari perbezaan ini: mereka tahu bila masa untuk menjadi mentor, bila untuk melatih (coach), dan bila untuk menyelia. Peranan mereka bukan sekadar mengagihkan tugas, tetapi membantu warga kerja merancang secara berkesan dan menyelesaikan masalah, di samping memastikan mereka mempunyai alatan serta sokongan yang diperlukan untuk berjaya. Apabila warga kerja belajar cara mengatasi rintangan, keyakinan mereka akan bertambah dan motivasi hadir secara semula jadi.

Bulatan 3: Membina Pasukan Berprestasi Tinggi

Untuk membantu warga kerja mencapai kejayaan, pemimpin mesti membina pasukan berprestasi tinggi, kerana bekerja secara berseorangan menyukarkan pencapaian matlamat.

Kebanyakan pemimpin biasa dengan fasa perkembangan pasukan oleh Tuckman: pembentukan (forming), konflik (storming), penyesuaian (norming), dan pelaksanaan berprestasi (performing). Namun, apa yang kerap terlepas pandang ialah pemimpin mesti mengurus fasa transisi antara fasa-fasa tersebut secara aktif, sentiasa berada di hadapan untuk membimbing pasukan. Satu kesilapan biasa adalah menganggap fasa konflik (storming) sebagai satu masalah. Hakikatnya, konflik adalah tanda kemajuan—fasa di mana warga kerja mula bersikap jujur dan tidak lagi berpura-pura sopan secara berlebihan. Perbezaan pandangan mula timbul, isu dibincangkan, dan rasa percaya mula bertambah mendalam. Pemimpin-Pengurus yang berkesan tidak takut akan taufan konflik ini; sebaliknya mereka memimpin pasukan merentasinya menuju fasa penyesuaian dan prestasi tinggi.

Bulatan 4: Maklum Balas dan Perbincangan Sukar

Tiada pasukan mampu menunjukkan prestasi tinggi tanpa persekitaran maklum balas yang sihat dan keupayaan mengendalikan perbincangan yang sukar. Ini amat penting terutamanya semasa fasa konflik (storming), iaitu apabila ketidaksepakatan mula timbul.

Pemimpin-Pengurus mesti mewujudkan budaya di mana maklum balas dilihat sebagai suatu hadiah, bukannya ancaman. Ini bermula dengan pemimpin itu sendiri. Pemimpin yang terbuka menerima maklum balas dan menggunakannya untuk penambahbaikan akan menetapkan nada positif bagi orang lain. Begitu juga, pemimpin mesti menunjukkan teladan apabila berhadapan dengan perbincangan yang sukar—tidak mengelak, tetapi mengendalikannya secara hormat, pantas, dan konstruktif. Apabila maklum balas diberi secara lancar dan perbincangan sukar dikendalikan dengan baik, tahap kepercayaan akan meningkat, masalah dapat diselesaikan, dan pasukan akan berkembang maju.

Bulatan 5: Mengurus Emosi dan Ketegangan

Maklum balas yang baik dan perbincangan sukar amat bergantung kepada keupayaan mengurus emosi dan ketegangan.

Emosi ialah satu sumber tenaga. Jika diurus dengan baik, ia membawa kepada penglibatan dan prestasi; jika diurus dengan buruk, ia merosakkan hubungan dan organisasi. Pemimpin-Pengurus harus belajar mengurus emosi sendiri sambil memberi respons yang wajar terhadap emosi orang lain. Sama juga halnya dengan ketegangan; tidak semua ketegangan itu membawa keburukan. Pemimpin tidak dibayar gaji untuk menghapuskan ketegangan, tetapi untuk mengurusnya. Ketegangan prestasi, akauntabiliti, inovasi, dan perubahan semuanya diperlukan untuk perkembangan. Objektif utamanya adalah memastikan ketegangan kekal produktif, bukannya merosakkan.

Bulatan 6: Komunikasi dan Pembinaan Jalinan Hubungan

Komunikasi dan pembinaan jalinan hubungan merupakan asas pengurusan manusia, yang bermula dengan kefahaman mudah: orang lain juga adalah manusia seperti kita.

Setiap daripada kita mempunyai keperluan yang hanya boleh dipenuhi melalui orang lain: pengiktirafan, pujian, kepastian, empati, dan rasa hormat. Oleh itu, pembinaan hubungan memerlukan kebertanggungjawaban peribadi dan keprihatinan tulus terhadap orang lain. Komunikasi yang baik bermula dengan budi bahasa serta kesediaan memberikan masa dan tenaga. Salah satu platform paling berkuasa untuk tujuan ini ialah perbualan. Bercakap dan mendengar kekal menjadi alat paling penting bagi seorang Pemimpin-Pengurus untuk membina kepercayaan dan meningkatkan prestasi.

Bulatan 7: Memotivasikan

Pemimpin-Pengurus tidak memotivasikan warga kerja melalui ucapan hebat atau slogan. Tanggungjawab mereka adalah merangka persekitaran yang mendorong prestasi melalui 'gabungan motivasi' (motivational mix) yang berkesan dan terancang.

Ganjaran kewangan seperti gaji dan bonus memang penting, tetapi ia hanyalah sebahagian daripada kerangka motivasi yang lebih luas. Pengiktirafan, peluang perkembangan, kerja yang bermakna, kepimpinan yang menyokong, dan budaya yang sihat adalah elemen penting lain dalam mewujudkan persekitaran berprestasi cemerlang. Jika dilihat secara mendalam, enam bulatan pertama itu sendiri merupakan sebahagian daripada gabungan elemen motivasi tersebut. Warga kerja secara semula jadi akan lebih bermotivasi apabila matlamat jelas, mereka mencapai kejayaan, bekerja dalam pasukan berprestasi tinggi, menerima maklum balas membina, mengurus emosi dengan baik, dan menikmati hubungan yang kukuh. Semakin kondusif persekitaran motivasi, semakin mampu warga kerja mendepani ketegangan kerja, membolehkan organisasi mencapai produktiviti dan hasil yang jauh lebih tinggi.

Bulatan 8: Muhasabah Diri

Jika Pemimpin-Pengurus tidak meluangkan masa untuk muhasabah diri, mereka lama-kelamaan mungkin terjerumus menjadi insan yang tidak dihajati, sekali gus kehilangan peluang untuk belajar dan berkembang.

Muhasabah diri bermula dengan soalan-soalan mudah tetapi mendalam: Di manakah saya hari ini? Di manakah saya mahu berada kelak? Bagaimana untuk saya sampai ke sana? Pemimpin-Pengurus yang berkesan kerap berhenti sejenak untuk menilai kemajuan, mencabar andaian, dan belajar daripada pengalaman. Mereka aktif mencari maklum balas dan menilai diri secara jujur berdasarkan tujuh bulatan pertama—menjadi pengkritik sekaligus pemotivasi kepada diri sendiri. Muhasabah diri ialah tanggungjawab kepimpinan amat penting yang wajar mendapat keutamaan tertinggi.

Para Kapten yang dihormati, Lapan Bulatan Pemimpin-Pengurus membentuk satu sistem bersepadu di mana setiap bulatan saling menyokong. Apabila diamalkan secara konsisten, ia akan menggerakkan Tugasan, Pasukan, dan Individu ke arah Matlamat Korporat.

Amat penting untuk para pemimpin melaburkan masa bagi memperkukuh setiap bulatan ini. Seperti mana-mana keupayaan lain, kepimpinan bertambah baik melalui pembelajaran, latihan, dan penambahbaikan berterusan. Organisasi mesti memastikan pengurus mereka dilatih, dibimbing, dan dididik untuk menerapkan bulatan-bulatan ini secara berkesan.

Pada masa yang sama, kita sebagai Kapten Industri mesti menjadi orang pertama yang mengamalkannya. Kita yang menetapkan piawaian; warga kerja tidak mengikut apa yang kita perkatakan, mereka mengikut apa yang kita lakukan. Apabila kita memimpin melalui teladan, kita mewujudkan organisasi di mana kecemerlangan kepimpinan dapat berkembang dengan jayanya.

 

THE EIGHT CIRCLES OF A LEADER-MANAGER - STARBIZ 15/08/26

THE EIGHT CIRCLES OF A LEADER-MANAGER

Dear Captains,

The task of a Leader-Manager is simple to state but challenging to accomplish: moving the Task, the Team and the Individual towards Corporate Goals. To achieve this, a Leader-Manager must lead and manage four critical areas: oneself, others, the execution of processes and systems, and change.

Of the four, leading and managing oneself receives the least attention. Most leadership programmes focus on managing others. While important, self-leadership remains the foundation. A person who cannot manage themselves will eventually struggle to lead others. The fish rots from the head; when a leader fails to manage themselves, the consequences are felt by everyone.

The second area, leading others, is the one most of us are familiar with. The third area, execution, is equally important because leaders are ultimately entrusted to make things happen, translating goals into action. Finally, leaders must be able to manage change. They must do so while simultaneously managing themselves, others, and execution, because change is not an occasional event - it is the very environment within which leadership takes place.

The Eight Circles of a Leader-Manager provide a practical framework for helping leaders fulfil these responsibilities more effectively.

Circle 1: Expectation Setting

The first task of any Leader-Manager is to remove uncertainty. People perform better when they know what is expected of them. Effective expectation setting begins with two things: being clear about the goal and asking the right questions. Goals provide direction; questions create understanding. Both are necessary.

Clarity must also be accompanied by meaning and purpose. Without them, people see work merely as tasks to complete rather than outcomes to achieve.

Three practices strengthen expectation setting:

1. Establish a clear social contract so everyone understands the expected behaviours between superiors, colleagues, subordinates, and stakeholders.
2. Create a common language of performance so people understand what is excellent, good, acceptable, or unacceptable.
3. Ensure everyone knows the baseline: where they are today, where they need to be, by when, and the agreed strategies to get there.

Circle 2: Planning and Problem Solving

The best way to motivate people is to help them achieve. Nothing motivates people more than growth, development and success.

Together, Circle 1 and Circle 2 form the core of leadership and management. First, leaders set clear expectations. Then, they help people achieve those expectations.

However, not everyone starts with the same level of readiness. Some need more knowledge, some need guidance, and others need closer monitoring. Effective Leader-Managers recognise these differences and respond accordingly, knowing when to mentor, when to coach and when to supervise.

Their role is not simply to assign tasks but to help people plan effectively and solve problems along the way, ensuring they have the tools and support needed to succeed. When people learn how to overcome obstacles, confidence grows, and motivation follows naturally.

Circle 3: Building High-Performing Teams

To help people succeed, leaders must build high-performing teams, as very few goals can be achieved alone.

Most leaders are familiar with Tuckman's stages of team development: forming, storming, norming, and performing. What many overlook is that leaders must actively manage the transitions between these stages, staying ahead of the team to guide it forward.

One common mistake is viewing storming as a problem. In reality, storming is a sign of progress. It is when people stop being overly polite and start being authentic. Differences surface, issues are discussed, and trust begins to deepen. Effective Leader-Managers do not fear the storm; they guide the team through it toward norming and performing.

Circle 4: Feedback and Difficult Conversations

No team becomes high-performing without a healthy environment of feedback and the ability to handle difficult conversations. This is especially important during the storming stage, when disagreements surface.

The Leader-Manager must create a culture where feedback is seen as a gift rather than a threat. This begins with leading oneself. Leaders who welcome feedback and use it to improve set the tone for everyone else.

Likewise, leaders must lead by example when dealing with difficult conversations. Rather than avoiding issues, they address them respectfully, promptly, and constructively. When feedback flows and difficult conversations are handled well, trust grows, problems are resolved, and teams thrive.

Circle 5: Managing Emotions and Tension

Good feedback and difficult conversations depend heavily on the ability to manage emotions and tension.

Emotion is a source of energy. Managed well, it drives engagement and performance; managed poorly, it damages relationships and organisations. Leader-Managers must learn to manage their own emotions while responding appropriately to the emotions of others.

Likewise, not all tension is bad. Leaders are not paid to eliminate tension; they are paid to manage it. Performance tension, accountability tension, innovation tension, and change tension are all necessary for growth. The objective is to ensure tension remains productive rather than destructive.

Circle 6: Communication and Relationship Building

Communication and relationship building are the foundation of people management, beginning with a simple understanding: other people are human beings just like us.

All of us have needs that can only be fulfilled through others - we seek approval, praise, reassurance, empathy, and respect. Building relationships therefore requires personal ownership and a genuine concern for others.

Good communication starts with good manners and the willingness to give time and energy to others. One of the most powerful platforms for doing this is conversation. Talking and listening remain the Leader-Manager's most important tools for building trust and improving performance.

Circle 7: Motivating

Leader-Managers do not motivate people through grand speeches or occasional slogans. Their responsibility is to design a motivating environment that encourages performance.

This requires the deliberate design of an effective motivational mix. Financial rewards like salary and bonuses are important, but they are only part of the equation. Recognition, growth opportunities, meaningful work, supportive leadership, and a healthy culture are equally important.

In many ways, the first six circles are themselves part of this motivational mix. People are naturally more motivated when goals are clear, they are successful, work within high-performing teams, receive constructive feedback, manage emotions well, and enjoy strong relationships. The more motivating the environment, the more performance tension people can productively transform into achievement.

Circle 8: Reflecting

If Leader-Managers do not make time to reflect, they may slowly become the person they never intended to be, losing opportunities to learn and grow.

Reflection begins with simple questions: Where am I today? Where do I want to be? How do I get there? Effective Leader-Managers regularly pause to assess progress, challenge assumptions, and learn from experience. They must seek feedback and honestly evaluate themselves against the first seven circles, becoming their own critic and motivator. Reflection is an essential leadership responsibility that deserves a place among a leader's highest priorities.

Dear Captains, The Eight Circles of a Leader-Manager form an integrated system where each circle supports the others. Practised consistently, they move the Task, the Team, and the Individual towards Corporate Goals.

It is vital that leaders invest time in strengthening each circle. Like any capability, leadership improves through learning, practice, and continuous improvement. Organisations must ensure their managers are trained, mentored, and coached to apply these circles effectively.

At the same time, we as Captains of Industry must be the first to practise them. We set the standards; people do not follow what we say, they follow what we do. When we lead by example, we create organisations where leadership excellence can flourish.

 

The Middle East Must Have Its Own Pact

The Middle East Must Have Its Own Pact

The Middle East must create its own regional pact, one that includes Iran and eventually all nations of the region.

I would call it the Middle East Peace and Prosperity Pact (MEPPP).

It should go beyond military security and be built around three pillars: security, economic cooperation and cultural exchange.

Most importantly, it must not align itself with any superpower. It should work with America, China, Russia, Europe, India, ASEAN and anyone else who comes with positive intentions, while allowing the nations of the Middle East to determine their own future.

Friends with everyone. Satellites of no one.

Peace,

Anas Zubedy

WAWASAN 2057: KEPIMPINAN YANG MENGABDI UNTUK SEMUA - Sinar Harian Hari Ini

 

WHAT IF BN/UMNO LEAVES THE UNITY GOVERNMENT?

 

WHAT IF BN/UMNO LEAVES THE UNITY GOVERNMENT?

In recent political discussions, a recurring question is gaining traction among commentators and observers: what happens if Barisan Nasional (BN), led by UMNO, decides to pull out of the Unity Government?

A prevailing view among many political analysts is that a BN exit would not automatically trigger the collapse of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's administration. The surface-level parliamentary arithmetic suggests that even if BN pulls its 30 seats, the remaining government coalition - comprising Pakatan Harapan (PH) alongside Borneo blocs like Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) - would still hold roughly 120 seats. In the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat, where 112 seats are required for a simple majority, a 120-seat government could theoretically continue to function, albeit with a significantly thinner margin than its current supermajority.

However, I am of the opinion that this "120-seat theory" relies on a flawed assumption about the political dynamics between Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia. In reality, GPS - and to a large extent GRS - has always placed considerable importance on maintaining a balanced federal coalition.

One important reason UMNO has never operated in Sarawak is the long-standing understanding that local Sarawak parties would represent Barisan Nasional there, reflecting Sarawak's preference for maintaining its own political identity within the federal coalition rather than being dominated by Peninsular-based political parties.

This historical context remains relevant today. While GPS has demonstrated its willingness to work pragmatically with all federal partners, including DAP, it has traditionally been more comfortable operating within a broad coalition where a major Malay-based Peninsular party such as UMNO provides an important political balance. A federal administration led almost entirely by Pakatan Harapan - and particularly one in which DAP becomes the dominant Peninsular component - would represent a fundamentally different political equation.

It is for this reason that I believe BN's role extends well beyond its 30 parliamentary seats. Should UMNO withdraw from the Unity Government, there is a strong possibility that GPS, and perhaps GRS, would conclude that the coalition has lost the political balance that made their participation acceptable in the first place.

The Seat Math:

• BN / UMNO: 30 seats
• GPS (Sarawak): 23 seats
• GRS (Sabah): 6 seats

Together, the simultaneous exit of BN, GPS and GRS would strip approximately 59 seats away from the Unity Government. This would instantly reduce the remaining PH-led core to just around 92 seats, well below the 112 needed to govern.

If those approximately 59 seats were to realign with Perikatan Nasional (PN), which currently holds around 70 seats, the newly formed opposition alignment would command a comfortable parliamentary majority. Mathematically, this would give PN and its new partners the numbers required to form a fresh federal government.

However, executing such a shift deep into the parliamentary term - with the 16th General Election (GE16) due by late 2027 or early 2028 - would come with immense public fatigue and political uncertainty. Rather than allowing a second "backdoor" government transition to unfold in Putrajaya, the prospect of an imminent BN and Borneo bloc withdrawal could instead become the ultimate catalyst for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to seek an audience with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament and call for an early General Election.

In short, many observers see BN's 30 seats simply as part of the parliamentary arithmetic. I see them differently. Their real significance lies not merely in the numbers they contribute, but in the confidence and political balance they provide to the broader coalition, particularly the East Malaysian blocs. Remove that anchor, and the arithmetic itself may change far more dramatically than many expect.

Whether one likes it or not, BN/UMNO is the linchpin of the Unity Government. Most people see only 30 parliamentary seats. I see something else: the political glue that holds the present coalition together.

Peace,
Anas Zubedy

 

ANTHONY LOKE'S DEFEAT: THE MISSING PIECE

ANTHONY LOKE'S DEFEAT: THE MISSING PIECE

Anthony Loke's defeat in Chennah has generated many commentaries. Most have focused on Anthony himself, Pakatan Harapan's and DAP's performance over the past four years, or the broader political mood in the country. All these are reasonable factors to consider.

But I think many have overlooked what could well be the most important reason.

If this was simply a rejection of PH - DAP, how do we explain the fact that many other senior DAP leaders won comfortably, some by very large majorities? 

That tells me there was another dynamic at work in Chennah.

My take is that internal DAP politics was one of the biggest reasons Anthony Loke lost his seat. I believe factional rivalry and the possibility of internal sabotage played a far greater role than many are prepared to admit.

Political parties do not only lose because of their opponents or because voters turn against them. Sometimes they lose because of what happens within their own ranks. And in Anthony Loke's case, I believe that deserves much greater attention than it has received.

Time will tell whether my reading is right. But I would not be surprised if internal DAP dynamics eventually prove to have been one of the decisive factors behind this result.

Peace.

Anas Zubedy